The Unite America (UAI) Institute released new analysis Tuesday that found that less and less US voters (down to 7%) are deciding nearly 90% of US House races in taxpayer-funded primary elections. What’s more, the gap between these numbers is widening.
Independent Voters
The 2024 election cycle is already a historic year for election reform. Six states plus the District of Columbia have measures on the November 5 ballot that, if approved by voters, will open taxpayer-funded primary elections to voters outside the Republican and Democratic Parties.
With the race to Election Day entering the homestretch, the Harris and Trump campaigns are in a full out sprint to reach independent voters, knowing full well that independents have been the deciding vote in every presidential contest since the Obama era. And like clockwork every election season, debates are arising about who independent voters are, whether they matter and even whether they actually exist at all.
The Arizona Free Enterprise Club filed a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of a ballot initiative that would require state lawmakers to adopt a primary system that allows all voters and candidates, regardless of party, to participate on a single ballot.
The DC Board of Elections has certified Initiative 83 for the November ballot, which would open primary elections to independent voters and requires ranked choice voting to be used in all District elections.
Last week, I recorded a podcast interview with Gabe Hart. Gabe lives in western Tennessee and is a plaintiff in a lawsuit challenging voter suppression signs that are hung at every poll site in Tennessee on primary day.
Gallup generally finds that independent voter ID falls between 40 to 50 percent of the electorate. However, 4 months out from November, the latest numbers show 51% of Americans now identify as independent of the two major parties.
By the end of 2023, the average percentage of Americans that self-identified as independent was at 43%, which tied a record high set in 2017. However, even in an election year, this percentage isn't dropping.
Arizona is ground zero for a novel approach to voting reform that is not getting any attention from the national press, but could have tremendous implications for future elections and provide a fairer process for all voters -- regardless of their political affiliation.
Gallup has found that even as the US gets closer to November, the percentage of Americans that identify as independent has remained unchanged – at around 45%