Editor's Note: This series originally published on Divided We Fall. It features perspectives from Julio Borquez and Suzanne Gallagher. Read more about the authors below. Their pieces were republished on IVN with permission from Divided We Fall. Photo by Gage Skidmore on Flickr.
Trump Should Focus on the Issues
By Julio Borquez – Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan-Dearborn
In the time since President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement, the Harris campaign has made notable success in rebuilding support among key Democratic voting blocs such as young voters and African American voters. Although the campaign of former President Donald Trump has struggled with the pivot to a new opponent, Trump’s base is as loyal as ever. In both national polls and battleground state polls, Trump versus Harris looks to be a very tight contest, which puts independent voters in the spotlight. While small in numbers, independents could prove critical in battleground states, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Georgia, which were decided by very thin margins in 2020.
Trump Needs to Win Back Independent Voters
A defining feature of support for Donald Trump since 2015 is that by most any measure – pre-election polling, election-day voting, presidential approval – his support has always been below 50 percent. His base is sizable and rock-solid, but it’s not quite enough to ensure victory. So, winning at least a small share of independent voters would seem to be a priority for Trump to supplement his base and win critical battleground states.
In 2016, Trump did well among independent voters, defeating Hillary Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent according to exit poll data. But by 2020, Trump’s independent support had slipped, and he lost decisively to Joe Biden 54 percent to 41 percent. Can Trump regain a foothold among independents between now and election day? Probably not.
In part, Trump’s challenges in winning over independent voters are similar to those faced by any other presidential candidate. First, most self-described independents harbor some allegiance to a major party, so they are not actually that independent. Moreover, independent voters tend to be less informed and less interested in campaigns, making them harder to reach. As important as independent voters might be, they also can be elusive. This is a problem for both the Trump and the Harris campaigns.
Another key feature about independent voters that is particularly troublesome for the Trump campaign is that independents seem to be put off by partisan rancor, gridlock, and name-calling. For these independents, the rejection of party labels is part of a more general distaste for politics. Thus any outreach to independents should emphasize policy and avoid partisan sniping and personal insults.
Trump Needs to Capitalize on the Biden Administrations’ Weaknesses
There has been no shortage of conservative commentary urging Trump to stick to the issues. Before Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign, Trump even enjoyed some advantages among independents on key campaign issues. For instance, a majority of independent voters disapproved of Biden’s handling of the economy and immigration. Although some recent polling suggests that Harris is closing some of the Biden deficit on these issues, Trump does have a policy opening to reach out to independents. But he needs to use it, and so far, Trump has shown little inclination to do that.
Mispronouncing Kamala Harris’s name, questioning her ethnicity or IQ, and speculating about AI-generated crowds might rouse his base and fuel late-night comedy routines; however, they are not a path to connect with independent voters who will likely recoil from such rhetoric. As long as Trump emphasizes vitriol rather than policy, his appeal to independents will be stymied.
Democrats’ Missteps Are Turning off Voters
By Suzanne Gallagher – Executive Director, Parents’ Rights in Education
Mr. Borquez has not addressed some important strengths on the conservative ticket and new developments in the Presidential campaign. Not only are more independents choosing to vote Republican, but so are many Democrats and unaffiliated voters.
In my experience leading a grassroots parents’ rights organization, many people have been unaware of the bad policies initiated by the Democrats over time. We have found that many of our followers routinely announce that they were Democrats, but now they want nothing to do with the Democratic Party. The fog lifted when they realized that many of the policies they disagreed with were enacted at local school districts by union-affiliated teachers and Democratic legislators.
Voters Are Questioning Democrats’ Leadership
Concerns about the Secret Service have emerged as a result of the U.S. House investigation into the events of January 6, 2021. The Trump assassination attempt further revealed problems with the integrity of our intelligence and protective service agencies. Senator Ron Johnson said the Secret Service and FBI are “basically dragging their feet” on the Senate bipartisan investigation into the attempted assassination of former President Trump. Ultimately, the Biden-Harris administration bears responsibility for that.
Jack Smith’s recent superseding indictment, raising the same four charges against Trump as were in the original indictment, is not receiving accolades from many voters, including Democrats. In addition, the “funny business” between President Biden and Representative Nancy Pelosi, substituting Vice President Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate without a single vote. At some point, reasonable people will question their allegiance to the Democratic Party and its leadership.
Democratic Discrepancies
Interestingly, Republican voter registration has increased dramatically since the national party nominating conventions. J.D. Vance, the Republican Vice Presidential candidate, is exposing opposition weaknesses and the lack of integrity displayed by the Democratic ticket. Both Vance and Trump have revealed multiple policy discrepancies and lies perpetrated over multiple years by Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. When voters discover that they have been duped, it will take decades to win back their trust.
It’s still too early to call this election, especially using polling data, and people can be enlightened and swayed nearly overnight. As of this writing, there are about 60 days left until the election. That’s plenty of time to reveal the truth about the Democratic ticket and its track record.
For Independent Voters, the Economy Is a Priority
By Julio Borquez – Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan-Dearborn
I agree with Ms. Gallagher that it’s too early to call the 2024 presidential election. With the contest essentially a tie and both campaigns in post-Labor Day overdrive, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will be focused on motivating and mobilizing their partisan bases while also trying to expand on those bases by appealing to independent voters. That’s a difficult needle to thread because the messaging that resonates with the base might put off independents.
I also concur with Ms. Gallagher’s observation that the Harris campaign has its vulnerabilities (though that applies at least as much to the Trump campaign). But I am skeptical that the topics Ms. Gallagher spotlights–alleged Secret Service corruption, the Trump indictments, perceived chicanery in the Democratic Party pivot from Biden to Harris–are the ones most likely to connect with independent voters.
Independent Voters Have Clear Concerns
Before Biden stepped down, a substantial percentage of independents expressed unhappiness with his handling of the economy. A July survey conducted by the pro-Democratic organization Blueprint found independents sharing mixed views about Harris’s economic agenda: 33 percent of independents said that Harris’s economic policies would be good for their families, while 37 percent said her policies would be bad for their families. And an August New York Times/Sienna College poll in battleground states asked respondents what issue would most influence their vote in November. Among independents, economic concerns were at the top of the list.
Trump’s base is unshakable, but he still needs some independent voters to prevail in key battleground states. To win over those independents, he should speak to the matters that independents care most about. (This applies to Harris too. Her base might not be quite as loyal as Trump’s, but it has become much more solid.) Economic concerns–Biden’s record and/or Harris’s policy agenda–should be front and center. In a recent New York Times op-ed article, Senator Lindsey Graham was the latest Republican urging Trump to do just that. Economic issues appear to be a priority for many independents, and a significant portion of them are on the fence about which candidate they prefer on these issues.
The next few weeks will show if the Trump campaign, and more specifically Donald Trump himself, can back away from personal insults–which certainly play well among the MAGA faithful–and find the messaging sweet spot that drives the base and persuades enough independents to carry the day.
Trump Can Win the Support of Independent Voters with His Economic Policies
By Suzanne Gallagher – Executive Director, Parents’ Rights in Education
Mr. Borquez makes a valid observation that both sides need to appeal to the independent voter to win the election. One of the most effective ways for the candidates to appeal to independent voters is to be clear about their stances. Trump has always been transparent about his positions on issues and has demonstrated his ability to lead during his first term. Trump’s America First message is about making American citizens his highest priority.
Mr. Borquez’s suggestion that President Trump’s Team should focus on the country’s economic problems is also valid. The election can be won by the candidate who addresses the dangers of hyperinflation and our out-of-control national debt. Independent voters care about their financial futures, including the buying power of the U.S. dollar. Both candidates have an opportunity to show citizens that the mishandling of money and future investments pose a real danger to our individual freedoms.
The National Debt Crisis
In the U.S., the national debt remains a growing problem as June interest payments alone on the debt amounted to three-quarters of personal income taxes collected. In other words, 76 percent of June’s individual income tax revenue was used solely for interest payments on the national debt, not including principal repayment. The current administration contributed to this situation by increasing the national debt by 25 percent to almost $35 trillion in just three and a half years. The message needed to win independent votes has to be a policy solution to the financial crisis created by lawmakers over the last 25 years.
The candidate who can instill economic confidence and financial security in voters will win this election. When independent voters weigh the economic consequences of a Harris-Walz victory, they will determine their vote cannot be wasted on less important issues. The way to reduce debt is to ignite the economy by lowering taxes, securing our borders, restoring law and order, and incentivizing the free market. All of these strategies are proven. Trump implemented these strategies during his first term as President, and he can do it again. That’s the message that Trump’s team needs to emphasize to motivate and win over independent voters this election.
About The Authors
Julio Borquez is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Michigan-Dearborn. His teaching and research interests are in the areas of electoral behavior, parties and campaigns, and survey methodology. He is currently collaborating on a longitudinal survey project examining political participation among university faculty.
Suzanne Gallagher has served as the Director of Parents’ Rights In Education since 2018. Prior to this role, she was a corporate executive, business owner, and president of Oregon Eagle Forum, motivating hundreds of people to attend school board meetings defending parents’ rights. Suzanne has served as a citizen lobbyist in the Oregon state capitol on many issues related to education policy.
